This is as good a shot as you get for a swingtrade. We're coming up on major resistance (previous highs and channel bottom of sp500 1140-1150) and we are very overbought. Below is one of my favorite overbought indicators, 18 day Time Segmented Volume in relation to it's 20-day moving average. on a 2-day chart of the SP-500. The bet here is any savvy bulls that've been cruising along with the tide the last month will want to bag some profits, while at the same time aggressive bears will start probing short, creating a stall or outright reversal of indexes near these levels. I'll be hitting the weakest of the rally stocks here, as the rising tide has lifted all boats, and on a down move you want to target the laggards which should turn into downside leaders.
Follow the arrows down from previous peaks to get a feel for the overbought.compare previous price peaks to the distance TSV (pink line) is from it's 20-day moving average (blue line). It's unlikely prices can go much higher without a retrace in my mind here...and it could be quit
e a bit more than a retrace since the bulls have been running wild. Just when you think it's totally safe to buy is when it usually isn't..Target is EEM via Shorting EDC, the emerging market bull which had been leading the downside move and is still well off the January highs..
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